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How to Handicap a Horse Race by Getting the Big Picture a Easy System to Pick Winners
There are probably hundreds of ways to handicap a horse race, including systems that range from computer programs to simple and easy to use comparisons. One way to pick winners is by getting the big picture and then seeing which horses have a big advantage. Some people argue that the favorite must have the advantage, but that is not always easy to quantify.
For instance, in one race, a horse may have a slight edge over the field while in another it may lay over the field and easily win the race. That can be reflected in the odds, but the odds don't always tell the whole story. A horse may be much better than all the other horses or it may be much better than most, but close in ability to a few others.
When you start to handicap it helps to get a general idea or feel for the race to know what you are looking at. I suggest that one method or system for starting the handicapping or picking process is to scan the race and circle the horse with the top speed figure in its last race and put an S beside it.
Next find the horse who raced for the highest purse in its last race and circle that one. You can put a big c beside that one because it ran at the highest class level in its last race. It doesn't matter how it finished in that race.
Another important factor is How Much a horse has actually earned. That is important because it tells the real story of how well it has been running at a class level it can handle. But the number of starts may be important, therefore, you can either just circle the horse with the highest earnings for the year, or you can divide each horse's earnings by the number of starts to get a per race figure. No matter which method you use, when you decide on the money horse, put a dollar sign beside it and circle it.
Finally, let's look at the connections. Circle the horse with the jockey with the highest win percentage and put a J beside it. While you're circling horses and marking your program you may notice that some horse are the best in more than one category. If that is the case, simply put the letter or dollar sign beside it. A horse may have the best jockey, so it has a J beside its name. It may also have the highest speed figure, so it has an S beside it. That is perfectly alright.
Once you have done this for the race, and it should only take a minute or two, you will be able to see if one horse really does have a big advantage by being the leader in more than one category. You will have the big picture and know just how hard the favorite will be to beat. If one horse is the favorite based on a speed figure, but is racing against a horse that earned a C for class, a J for best rider and a $ for the best earnings, you should take a hard look at the horse with three marks and decide if it really does have a chance to beat the speedster. It certainly appears to have a lot going for it.
Ask yourself, "How did it earn all that money, why is the best rider on it, and how will the class drop help it?" Those are all good reasons to bet on it, if the odds are right.
About the Author
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to Learn How a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horserace handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.
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